Rui Hachimura: What NBA scouts are saying about the Washington Wizards forward

Publish date: 2024-04-22

Author’s note: This is the fourth article in a five-part series examining NBA scouts’ opinions about the potential and development of the Washington Wizards’ most prominent young players.

Part 1 (including an explanation of the methodology): Deni Avdija. Part 2: Johnny Davis. Part 3: Daniel Gafford.

WASHINGTON — The 2021-22 season yielded two major surprises about Rui Hachimura. One of them makes his future more difficult to project. The other raises his value.

Hachimura missed the Washington Wizards’ training camp, preseason and first 39 regular-season games while he dealt with an undisclosed personal issue. His absence hurt, depriving the team of one of its top young players and delaying his adjustment to new teammates and to the schemes employed by new coach Wes Unseld Jr.

Although Hachimura played in 42 of the Wizards’ final 43 games, he remains one of the team’s most difficult players to forecast. The problem isn’t the personal issue that forced his layoff. The problem is that, three full seasons into his professional career, he has appeared in only 147 regular-season games, leaving him with a relatively thin NBA résumé for someone who will turn 25 years old in February. Scouts, coaches and front office officials throughout the league may have a good idea of how he’ll develop, but his relative lack of tangible experience leaves a smaller body of work to evaluate.

“I think he’s a hard one (to assess) because he’s still young, and in many ways, he’s so much more inexperienced than a player his age,” said Scout A, one of the four scouts I interviewed for this article. “He hasn’t played as many games as you’d hope in three seasons.”

To be clear, for this piece, I did not ask the scouts for their opinions about Hachimura’s absence at the outset of the 2021-22 season. When I asked them to make observations and draw conclusions, those contributions stem from what the scouts have seen on the court, not from their conjecture related to Hachimura’s time away.

I have written before about why granting the scouts anonymity is necessary for this series of articles about Washington’s young players. But since anonymity is used here, it would be unfair to Hachimura to ask the scouts to speculate on an off-the-court personal matter, especially since the reason for his absence has not been disclosed.

Washington ramped up Hachimura slowly last season, and even after he cleared initial minutes restrictions, the presence of power forward Kyle Kuzma blocked him from the starting lineup. Hachimura became a starter in the team’s 70th game, only after Kuzma suffered an injury that kept him out for the remainder of the year.

In 22.5 minutes per game, a dramatic reduction compared to Hachimura’s first and second seasons, he averaged 11.3 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.1 assists, all career lows.

But he also made 44.7 percent of his 3-point attempts. That dramatic improvement on his long-range shooting was the second shocker to Hachimura’s season.

“I joined the team a little bit late, but overall, I think personally it was a pretty good season for me,” Hachimura said.

The scouts, however, are not as optimistic.

Hachimura’s strengths

The 6-foot-8, 230-pound forward can score. That is his clear-cut strength. Although his 11.3 points per game last season were a career low, that output stemmed from his relatively limited playing time. Per 36 minutes, he averaged 18.1 points, the highest per-36 mark of his career.

“To me,” Scout B said, “the one-word description of him is ‘scorer.’”

Hachimura piles up points in a variety of ways. He scored 1.26 points per possession completed in transition, ranking in the 77th percentile among all NBA players regardless of position, according to Synergy Sports. He scored 1.035 points per possession finished in the half court, also placing him in the 77th percentile, per Synergy. That high level of effectiveness relative to the rest of the league speaks well of his versatility on that end.

In the video to follow, from a mid-March game against the Los Angeles Lakers, note how he takes advantage of a mismatch against Austin Reaves, a shorter, less powerful player. As Hachimura drives, he lowers his right shoulder into Reaves’ chest, generating all the separation Hachimura needs for a fadeaway jumper.

In his first two seasons, shots at the rim and from the midrange were his go-to locations.

Hachimura’s offensive arsenal has evolved. In his first two seasons combined, attempts from beyond the arc accounted for 18.8 percent of all his field-goal attempts. Last season, 3s accounted for 32.3 percent of his field-goal attempts.

His success rate ballooned to unexpected highs. After he made only 31.3 percent of his 3-point tries during his first two seasons, he drained 44.7 percent last season.

Just how impressive was that? Put it this way: Among all players leaguewide who attempted at least 100 3s, only one other player, the LA Clippers’ Luke Kennard, shot a higher percentage. Kennard made 44.9 percent of his attempts.

This video, from the Wizards’ road loss to the Knicks on March 18, illustrates how comfortable Hachimura became from long distance, especially as the season progressed. Hachimura sets a screen on RJ Barrett (No. 9), then pops beyond the 3-point line. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope passes to Hachimura, who elevates for a 3 before center Mitchell Robinson(No. 23) can close out effectively.

In a major sign of growth, Hachimura’s improvement from long range transformed his efficiency. In his second season, he scored 109.9 points per 100 field-goal attempts, according to Cleaning the Glass, an advanced analytics website that omits garbage-time stats and end-of-quarter heaves from its calculations. Last year, he scored 116.0 points per 100 field-goal attempts, placing him in the 77th percentile among players whom Cleaning the Glass classifies as forwards. (In prior seasons, the website grouped Hachimura as a big since a larger share of his playing time occurred at power forward.)

Scout C said Hachimura’s growth as a 3-point shooter will improve the way Hachimura is regarded around the league if Hachimura can continue to shoot well over a larger sample size. Indeed, because he began playing around last season’s midway point, and because his path to playing time was blocked by Kuzma and, to some degree, Deni Avdija, Hachimura launched just 123 attempts from beyond the arc.

Scout B said of Hachimura: “The major thing with him was he shot the 3 well in his 42 games, and that is huge. It was a small sample, 120-something shots. But the fact that he did it, if he can continue that, that’s a big jump for him even if he’s not at 40 (percent). If he’s at 39, (that would be fine). He really had been just a midrange guy. If that’s added to his game, then he becomes a much more valuable player. So, that was encouraging.”

Hachimura’s weaknesses

The scouts did not suggest that the ability to score points is inconsequential.

But in Hachimura’s case, the problem is that the rest of his game needs work — and, in some areas, significant work.

Scout B and Scout C rated Hachimura’s defense as average, at best.

Indeed, Hachimura’s defensive performance can be glaringly ineffective at times. He is perceived as a player who is not all that interested in, or focused on, defending.

“That’s fair, unfortunately,” Scout A said. “That was the area that you kind of thought maybe he had the most upside in in college, and it’s turned out to be almost the opposite, where the majority of his value is derived on the offensive end as opposed to the defensive end.”

This clip, from Washington’s victory in Detroit on March 25, features Hachimura defending Cade Cunningham. Hachimura falls for a quick deke by Cunningham, who then slashes his way into the lane and finishes with an easy dunk.

To be sure, it’s possible to consider the matchup between Hachimura and Cunningham as a mismatch because of Cunningham’s quickness. Also, Kristaps Porziņģis could have reacted more quickly on help defense. But still, Cunningham should not have as easy a path to the basket as Hachimura permitted.

Unseld and Wizards president and general manager Tommy Sheppard have said many times that they view Hachimura as a potential two-way player capable of defending multiple positions. Physically, there’s nothing that prevents Hachimura from defending well. In fact, Scout D lauded Hachimura’s capabilities, saying, “He’s got size, and he can move his feet. That’s the biggest thing. I think he has some versatility, as well, in terms of being able to switch and defend in space.”

The issue appears to be Hachimura’s focus, want-to and overall feel on the defensive end, especially in help situations.

In the video to follow, from a loss to the Golden State Warriors in late March, Hachimura helps when Andrew Wiggins maneuvers toward the rim, even though Corey Kispert and Porziņģis are in positions to guard Wiggins effectively. In the process, Hachimura seems to forget about Otto Porter Jr., whom Wizards coaches no doubt listed on their scouting report as a more-than-capable 3-point shooter. The end result of this sequence: a wide-open 3 by Porter.

One defensive area where Hachimura struggles is when opponents spot up. According to Synergy, opponents averaged 1.287 points per possession on spot-ups where Hachimura was the closest defender, placing Hachimura in the eighth percentile leaguewide among all players.

In this clip, Hachimura is guarding Orlando Magic center Mo Bamba, who is well known across the league to favor 3-point shots from the top of the arc, and also is well known not to be a threat to drive to the hoop. Here, Hachimura is looking to help Porziņģis with a difficult perimeter matchup against Magic point guard Cole Anthony. But once Anthony passes to Bamba at the top of the arc, Hachimura is oddly lethargic to cut down Bamba’s space. The outcome: a made 3 by Bamba.

The Wizards are hoping for significant improvement from Hachimura on that end. He should benefit from his familiarity with Unseld’s defensive scheme and from having a full offseason, training camp and preseason.

“With Rui, I think he’s a great blend player,” Sheppard said. “I think his defense will be much improved next year. One thing I can really compliment him on is very, very seldom do you see somebody miss training camp, miss preseason and come back and have a productive year. Once he kicked the minutes restriction and was able to play, especially as a starter, his numbers (were) more in line with what we envision for him.

“That 3-point line certainly became his friend, and he embraced it. I expect him to continue to be a 3-point threat next season. That’s only going to help the Wizards’ offense. Now we need him to work on his defense, like everybody else. I think he’ll be an excellent two-way player who can play multiple positions.”

Defense, however, is not the only area in which Hachimura can improve.

For a player who primarily plays power forward, he’s not a productive defensive rebounder. He ranked in the 29th percentile among bigs in defensive-rebounding percentage as a rookie and in the 12th percentile among bigs in the same category in his second season, per Cleaning the Glass.

Last season, he gathered 14.1 percent of available defensive rebounds. He ranked in the 64th percentile, but that was because Cleaning the Glass classified him as a forward, not a big. Indeed, that defensive-rebounding percentage actually was lower than his percentage as a rookie (14.7 percent).

On the offensive end, although he scores at a high clip, that comes at the expense of his passing. He’s never been better than average in terms of his assist rate, and he has a tendency to seek out his own shot too often and play with blinders on.

“He’s a little bit one-dimensional,” Scout B said. “I don’t think he’s got a great feel (for the game). He doesn’t really see the floor that well. He’s not making plays for other people.”

The exception, as Scout B noted, will occur if Hachimura can continue to shoot the 3 at a high rate. If Hachimura can solidify his 3-point gains, his floor spacing will create lanes for teammates even if Hachimura is stingy with his passing.

Hachimura’s future

The upcoming season will be crucial for Hachimura, who was the ninth pick in the 2019 draft out of Gonzaga.

He already has a lot to prove to the rest of the league, as the scouts’ comments indicate. If he and the Wizards don’t agree on a contract extension in the coming weeks, he’ll need to strengthen his subpar areas during the season to secure a big payday next summer in free agency.

“To have improved as a 3-point shooter is encouraging, and that allows him to kind of accelerate to the same type of profile that maybe Avdija has, where he can be a multi-position player and, at the same time, have a definable offensive role,” Scout A said.

“I think in college, people were fascinated by his defensive potential, because he played hard and he had this great body and athleticism. It’s turned out that he may have more of an offensive type of role. I’m a little bit less optimistic about his ability to be a starting-caliber player on a good team. He seems to have settled into this position where he may just be a good role player, a bench player. I hope that he has more, because he was someone that had a lot of interest in college when he was coming out of Gonzaga. I want to hope that there’s more there.”

Scout B and Scout C are skeptical that Hachimura will become the two-way player the Wizards envision.

“Is he a starter on a good team?” Scout B asked. “I’m not sure about that. But as a sixth man type? And if he can continue with the 3s? That’s a nice piece. He’s now going into his fourth year, and he averaged 11 or 12 (points) in fewer minutes. If you can get 15 off the bench from him and he shoots a reasonably high percentage from 3, then a lot of teams would like that even though he’s somewhat limited overall. I don’t think he’s a great basketball player. I think he’s a very good scorer.”

Barring injuries, Hachimura figures to enter the season as Kuzma’s backup at power forward, while Avdija is more likely to be a backup on the wing.

Still, Hachimura should have an opportunity to fill out the rough spots to his game.

His next contract could depend on it.

(Photo: Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)

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Rui Hachimura: What NBA scouts are saying about the Washington Wizards forward

Hachimura’s strengths

Hachimura’s weaknesses

Hachimura’s future